Is 5G home internet the future of broadband or the next DSL? T-Mobile, Verizon, AT&T, Charter and Comcast Consider | Wire cutters

Everyone in the broadband industry is talking about a boom in 5G home internet services. But almost no one seems to agree on where it’s going.

That was evident at this week’s Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology conference, a rare opportunity to hear from the CEOs of the big three wireless companies Verizon, T-Mobile and AT&T, as well as The two largest leading cable television companies are Comcast and Charter. When it comes to 5G home broadband, it’s all over the place.

Verizon CEO Hans Vestberg sees so-called fixed wireless access, the industry term for 5G broadband connectivity, as a big growth driver. “I see a great opportunity for us to continue this,” he said.

T-Mobile CEO Mike Sievert was more cautious. “It plays a role in the market,” he said.

AT&T CEO John Stankey said distinguishing between wireless and wired broadband was a “mistake” and suggested it all started with fiber.

It seems the only two industry leaders that can agree are cable competitors who don’t offer service. Comcast CEO Brian Roberts and Charter CEO Chris Winfrey both see it as the next “DSL.”

Different opinions – even among telecom executives – suggest that 5G home internet is approaching a fork in the road. Over the last year, the service has grown in popularity, now outpacing any other growth in the broadband industry. With its ease of setup and ability to reach more people, it could represent Cord Cut 2.0. But comments from this week, as well as some network and spectrum limitations, could make it more of a side action going forward.

Currently, this is a growing business for wireless carriers as consumer awareness and demand grows.

“This is money on the streets,” said Roger Entner, an analyst at Recon Analytics. “They just pick it up.”

Enthusiasm

Despite performing well behind Verizon, T-Mobile is still the most successful company in attracting customers to use 5G services at home. But Sievert downplayed its achievements in this area, focusing instead on the success the company is achieving in its core wireless business.

“We’re not going to change the world of broadband with this offer,” Sievert said at Wednesday’s conference.

Despite the growth, T-Mobile is only targeting millions of customers for the service, a fraction of its more than 115 million wireless subscribers. The numbers give you some perspective on how the business prioritizes the service provider.

For now, it remains a growth driver, Sievert said. With a base of 3.7 million 5G home internet customers, they also far exceeded their subscription target.

Meanwhile, Verizon is looking for new customers at a time when it is trying to stem the exodus of wireless subscribers. As a result, it’s leaning even more heavily into 5G broadband, with a goal of reaching 4 to 5 million customers by 2025, although Vestberg said his internal goals are even more aggressive.

“Right now, there is pent-up demand for broadband in this country.”

Verizon CEO Hans Vestberg

“There is a growing demand for broadband in this country right now,” he said.

Vestberg may be emphasizing 5G home internet as it is one of the rare bright spots in the business field.

“Verizon needs a win for its consumer business, and fixed wireless is starting to deliver on that after a slow start,” said Techsential analyst Avi Greengart.

Since AT&T is only launching in about 20 markets, Stankey has the least to say about the prospects of 5G home Internet. But he remains optimistic about the region.

“I am absolutely confident that when we get the distribution rights and the rights to connect the product between fixed and wireless, we can be a winner in this space and regain (the total addressable market) address) that we have not addressed effectively,” he said. .

Both Verizon and T-Mobile agree that consumer response has been strong thanks to ease of installation and simplified pricing. Net Promoter Score, measurement

Hit the ceiling

The future of 5G home Internet is still pretty murky because no one knows what will happen once wireless carriers hit that million-digit target. The strategy for wireless carriers is to offer service in areas with excess spectrum capacity – in places with less smartphone congestion or where they have plenty of radio waves to work with. .

But once carriers achieve those goals, they will have to start investing in new infrastructure to provide service to more people.

“They’re still looking at whether they can do this in a cheaper way without impacting on mobility,” Entner said.

Sievert said he is looking at different options but said he hasn’t “got it figured out” yet. “We’re not done searching yet,” he said.

The common theme of Verizon’s Vestberg and AT&T’s Stankey is an instinct to return to fiber.

“That’s where I believe the U.S. domestic market is moving over time,” Stankey said.

Vestberg sees 5G home internet as a way to attract customers now and give him the option later to add fiber to that home. “I would have options later if you want fiber,” he said. “But that’s still a long way off.”

Even Sievert admits that its service will not “replace cable or fiber.”

Currently, the service is popular enough to eat into cable, but neither Comcast nor Charter will admit it.

Its photography cable

Comcast’s Roberts and Charter’s Winfrey didn’t hold back when talking about 5G home Internet.

“We’ve seen that with DSL in the past and we’ve been able to handle that well,” Roberts said. “We don’t take it for granted, but we’ve seen lower-priced services, slower speeds in the past, and in the long term, I don’t know how viable this technology is.”

“The early success of fixed wireless access shows that there is a niche market for products with limited bandwidth, limited capacity and limited reliability that exists in the market,” said Winfrey. ”.

“I don’t know how viable this technology is.”

Comcast CEO Brian Roberts

These may just be glowing comments from a hard-hit cable industry. After all, Verizon and T-Mobile combined added nearly 900,000 5G home Internet customers in the second quarter, while the cable industry combined added just 10,000 customers (Charter added 70,000 broadband customers , covering losses from other cable providers).

The cable industry is also pinning its hopes on DOCSIS 4.0, a new standard for cable broadband that will significantly increase existing speeds. The technology is expected to launch later this year.

That multi-gigabit speed will make it a more viable competitor to telecom fiber, but the cable industry believes it will also counter the threat from 5G. T-Mobile’s 5G broadband speeds range from 72 Mbps to 245 Mbps, while Verizon’s are 85 Mbps to 300 Mbps, with some markets accessing high-frequency millimeter wave spectrum that can enable speeds of 300 Mbps. Mbps to 1 Gbps. Even now, Winfrey and Roberts mentioned that many of their customers are on 300 Mbps or faster plans.

The question is whether wireless cables will make additional investments to increase speeds for 5G home customers.

And beyond that, Entner said, the conversation can veer away from pure speed.

“The game goes from speed and towards reliability,” he said.

Time will tell whether 5G home Internet remains a major force in that game.